Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 06 Feb 2009 06:00 to Sat 07 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 05 Feb 2009 15:55
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An upper trough is placed over W/NW-Europe, accompanied by an extensive surface depression. Attendant cold mid-levels overspread the Bay of Biscay and the western Mediterranean and serve as a focus for some instability release. However the boundary layer airmass features only slim moisture contet, so it will be hard to nail the hot spots down. There were persistent signals of thunderstorm probabilities in global models along the south coast of France, where DLS of 20-30m/s overlap. A few stronger storms should take profit of the strong background flow, gaining at least some degree of organisation and producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts mainly during the morning hours and noon.
Another region with augmented DLS will be west of Greece [06Z-12Z]. Lapse rates at mid-levels are steep, some forcing approaches from the west and we won't rule out an isolated, elevated thunderstorm. It looks like forcing is not strong enough to support enhanced convection and therefore we will stick with the model consensus, keeping the area dry.

The rest of the highlighted regions has a good chance to see at least an isolated, short-lived thunderstorm, posing no severe risk. The highlighted areas were a blend of climatology, better BL moisture, stronger LL convergence and best synoptic support. A few, isolated thunderstorms could also occur outside of the thunderstorm areas, especially over Spain and N-Italy, but expected coverage remains very isolated.