Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 03 Feb 2009 06:00 to Wed 04 Feb 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 03 Feb 2009 08:50
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An upper trough passes over the Mediterranean. Some few hundred J/kg CAPE develops mostly within the drawn thunder areas, progressively further eastwards.
A marginal level 1 is issued for the western Balkan coastlines, because deep layer shear over 20 m/s, SREH3 over 150 m²/s² (over sea) and much enhanced values over land (SREH3>300 m²/s², LLS>17 m/s) with low LCLs in principle are sufficient for a chance of a tornado. Later in the night (early morning) storms may tend to stall on the coastline around Albania (GFS), with local flash floods possible. Lamma-WRF of 00Z puts the precipitation farther north.
Weaker flow against the coast of western Italy causes a lot of precipitation in GFS as well, but is less pronounced in Lamma-WRF.
An MCS could form east of Sicily at the northern edge of the jetstream, and track to NW Greece during the night.