Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 29 Jan 2009 06:00 to Fri 30 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 28 Jan 2009 22:22
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Two amplified troughs are present west of Europe over the Atlantic, and over eastern Europe extending into east Mediterranean. While the western leads to warm air advection over western Europe, cold air advection dominates over southern Europe in the wake to the eastern trough. Moist and relatively unstable air mass will remain in the range of the eastern trough during the period. Between both troughs, a high ridges into Scandinavia.

DISCUSSION

Mediterranean from southern Italy to southern Turkey

Main polar jet streak is far south over northern Africa as large trough is situated over most of east Mediterranean. In the range of this trough, relatively weak mid-level winds are present, and wind shear will be weak throughout the period.

Latest soundings over the central Mediterranean indicate that the trough centre is dominated by steep low- and mid-level lapse rates. As the boundary-layer is rather moist due to the warm sea surface, CAPE has developed and is also expected further east on Thursday.

Given weak CIN and some low-level convergence underneath the trough centre, showers and thunderstorms will likely develop from the sea surrounding southern Italy and Sicily to the Aegean and further to southern Turkey. Given rather strong low-level buoyancy and weak vertical wind shear, this situation seems to be favourable for waterspouts along the coasts with the best potential from southern Adriatic to Aegean Sea.

Convective activity is forecast to spread eastward during the period as low-level cold air advection strengthens from the north-west.