Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 27 Jan 2009 06:00 to Wed 28 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 27 Jan 2009 07:29
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Unstable airmass associated with a low pressure area centered over the Tyrrhenian Sea covers a large part of the Mediterranean.
Along the cold front near western Greece and later western Turkey vertical shear is enhanced, increasing the chances of severe weather.

DISCUSSION

...Greece, Turkey....

With some 25 m/s 0-6 km shear and 100-300 m²/s² SREH, the availability of a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE can produce at isolated scale severe weather, such as marginal large hail, tornado (where 0-1 km shear > 10 m/s).
Given that shear vectors are oriented along the front, storms will have a tendency to backbuild along the front, with precipitation being regenerated over small regions with large sums possible.

Elsewhere, especially around the center of the low, spin-up of vertical vorticity in updrafts within the weak flow where 0-3 km CAPE and low level lapse rates are high could yield waterspouts.