Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 06 Jan 2009 06:00 to Wed 07 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 06 Jan 2009 07:07
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
SYNOPSIS
A sea level low pressure area develops over the western Mediterranean Sea in association with an upper cut-off low moving southward to southern France and Spain.
Another low pressure are is situated south of Turkey.
DISCUSSION
...southern shore of Turkey...
A combination of several hundreds J/kg CAPE and about 15 m/s 0-6 km shear and 200 mē/sē SREH3 could yield multicells or marginal supercells producing severe hail or large amounts of small hail. Waterspouts are also possible.
...southeastern France, Monaco area, western Corsica...
Very small amounts of CAPE are forecast by GFS model, however, strong convergence zones spiral towards the center of the low during evening and night, and most-unstable ELs are favorable for deep convection. A region of strong SREH (>400 mē/sē) develops close to the French coast and also low level shear is enhanced. If storms form in this region, they may obtain rotation and some chance of producing a tornado or hail. However, it seems more likely that the convergence zone remains offshore.
The band of enhanced SREH values stretches also to the Balearic islands, but best convergence and instability seem to develop south and west of it.
