Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 05 Jan 2009 06:00 to Tue 06 Jan 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 04 Jan 2009 15:03
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A cold and dry airmass is present over almost whole Europe so the thunderstorm risk remains very low. A frontal boundary over extreme SE Europe is the focus for thunderstorms and a very isolated thunderstorm could also occur over the extreme eastern Atlantic but the latter threat is too low for any specific display on the map.

DISCUSSION

... SE Ioanian Sea and the S Aegean Sea ...

A quasi-stationary boundary sets up over the area, running from the WSW to the ENE and streamline maps reveal a wavy appearance due to numerous weak depressions, moving along this boundary to the ENE. This boundary separates dry and cool air to its north from moist and warm air to its south which is also visible in a sharp drop of instability values along this shear zone from the south to the north. Numerous, ill defined short waves cross the boundary from the SW during the forecast period, but dynamics remain quite weak. Hence no real focus regarding highest thunderstorm coverage can be made but the overall thunderstorm risk should increase gradually from west to east during the day. Naturally shear, especially directional shear, is enhanced in the vicinity of the shear zone, but instability support is not impressive. Furthermore global models don't agree well on the weak low-level depressions and their strength. There are indications that some areas see an overalp of some speed/directional shear and modest instability release. An isolated large hail event and gusty winds mark the main risk for this level area. However, LL CAPE is on the increase and and an isolated tornado event can't be ruled out.