Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Dec 2008 06:00 to Tue 30 Dec 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 28 Dec 2008 19:31
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A strong high pressure area, centered over N-Europe is the main steering mechanism and keeps thunderstorm probabilities confined to the southern Mediterranean. Shear remains weak, so no organized thunderstorms are forecast.

A cold core low moves to the WNW/NW along the southwestern quadrant of the high pressure area, crossing most parts of France from the SE. Conditions for deep convection change for the better during the day, especially during the night, as moisture infiltrates from the SW. However, low-end magnitude of instability release precludes sustained updrafts and despite a very isolated lightning strike over central France, no thunderstorm activity is expected.

Better boundary layer moisture but warm airmass throughout the mid-levels and hence weak lapse rates also limit instability release west of Portugal and despite an isolated thunderstorm event there won't be any deep convection.