Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 27 Dec 2008 06:00 to Sun 28 Dec 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 26 Dec 2008 15:05
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

A large-scale deep-layer anticyclone is sprawling across most of the European continent. A moderately strong quasi-stationary low-level baroclinic zone, separating modestly moist Mediterranean air from N-European continental polar air is stretching roughly from S Turkey westwards across the N Mediterranean. An upper low exists over the Balkans and is expected to spread into the N Mediterranean on Saturday, and a small perturbation at its southern periphery is simulated to result in low-level cyclogenesis over the Aegean region late in the period.

DISCUSSION

... western Mediterranean ...

Simulated ICAPEs are very low indeed, but most-unstable EL temperatures of less than -40C suggest that scattered thunderstorms may occur. Towards the evening, deep shear is expected to increase (25 m/s), suggesting that some of the cells may at least briefly become organized. However, shear seems to be confined to the upper portions of the storm depths, also, there is a lack of large- and mesoscale forcing for ascent. Altogether it seems that an isolated marginally severe wind/hail event cannot be ruled out, but the allover severe threat seems to be too low for a categorical risk. Given minimal thermodynamic support, expect lightning activity over the W Mediterranean area as well as over the S Ionian/Aegean regions to be rather sporadic