Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 26 Dec 2008 06:00 to Sat 27 Dec 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 25 Dec 2008 17:54
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION

An intense high pressure area over NW Europe still gains strength and dictates the weather over Europe. The retrograde moving upper low over the Alpine region/S-France and then Spain will be the focus for some thunder, mainly over the western Mediterranean. In the past few model runs there were numerous spots over the central Mediterranean, where convective signals were shown, but this changed in almost each model run. Overall the environmental conditions are marginal favorable for a few storms. Both shear and instability release will be very weak so no organized thunderstorm threat is forecast. An intense cold-core low over the western Black Sea and attendant steep mid-level lapse rates (e.g. in excess of 8K/km) foster the development of a few thunderstorms but nothing severe is expected. The mid-levels over far N-Sweden/Norway/Finland are very cold and coupled with a marginal moist boundary layer, enhanced convection is possible during the passage of a strong trough, but lightning activity, if any, should be sparse.