Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 25 Dec 2008 06:00 to Fri 26 Dec 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 24 Dec 2008 22:48
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

An amplifying high is situated over western Europe and ridges into Scandinavia during the period. To the east a polar trough cuts off into the north Mediterranean Sea, where cyclogenesis is forecast late in the period. Initially stable air masses will likely destabilize in the warm sector of the deepening low over the central Mediterranean. Latest soundings indicate that a rather moist boundary-layer has developed underneath a strong inversion, and it seems to be possible that upper height falls will be associated with some instability late in the period. Although depth of the unstable layer will be limited, and equilibrium temperatures will be rather warm, a few thunderstorms are not ruled out. Best potential seems to exist near the centre of the surface low where low-level moist air mass and convergence are forecast as well as along a frontal boundary moving eastward in the range of the warm air advection regime west of Greece. While vertical wind shear in the lower levels is forecast to be rather weak, severe convection is expected to be unlikely.