Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 16 Dec 2008 06:00 to Wed 17 Dec 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 16 Dec 2008 02:46
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Most active weather is found around a low pressure center in the western Mediterranean Sea and its cold front affecting the west coast of Italy and later the Balkan coastal region. At the end of the period the region of southern Italy to Greece destabilizes.
A low pressure area approaches Scotland with shower activity, but the cold airmass allows insufficient electrification. Gusts can reach 25 m/s. A small mid/upper trough near the Baltic countries is also thought to produce some showers but these also are unlikely to be electrified.


DISCUSSION

..coastal zones of Italy, Croatia, Bosnia...

Deep layer shear is in the range 15 m/s in the north of the level 1 areas to 30 m/s southwards. Low level shear and SREH increase as result of friction over land (10-15 m/s and 200-300 m2/s2). These conditions combined with strong linear convergence along the front and some 400-800 J/kg CAPE can produce thunderstorms with some chance of hail around 2 cm, strong but likely sub-severe gusts (20 m/s) and chance of a tornado. Italy is affected during the morning and the western Balkan during late evening and night.