Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 07 Nov 2008 06:00 to Sat 08 Nov 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 06 Nov 2008 15:12
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Sharp upper trough over W-CNTRL Europe weakens/broadens and retreats slowly northwards. In its wake, mid-/upper levels remain cold, supportive for some scattered convective activity over the W/CNTRL Mediterranean. Ridging over E-Europe continues with strong CAA downstream. Numerous short-waves/depressions affect Scotland/UK and Ireland with unsettled and windy conditions.

A couple of thunderstorm areas were drawn Europe-wide, but none has sufficient shear/instability overlap for organized convection. Marginal hail and gusty winds remain the main risks.

As strong trough over Ireland draws near the west coast of UK before midday, a belt of enhanced winds at 850hPa overspreads the coastal areas with marginal instability release. A few gusts could approach our criterion for severe wind gusts, but environment is not conducive for a level-1. The same for extreme NW France 00Z onwards.