Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 26 Oct 2008 06:00 to Mon 27 Oct 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 25 Oct 2008 21:23
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

A strong low pressure system west of Norway will translate northward while weakening. Its cold front will affect parts of western / central Europe with some stratiform and embedded convective precipitation during the day. Between this feature and an upper ridge near Greenland, cold arctic air will spread southward into western / northwestern Europe in the following days. Except for an upper low over Algeria / Morocco and another one over western Turkey, conditions should stay quiescent over most parts of Europe.

DISCUSSION

...North Sea, British Isles, W Scandinavia...

In the wake of the cold front that stretches from southern Ireland via Denmark towards southern Finland, cold upper air will overspread the North Sea region. A few hundred J/kg of CAPE should be created during the day which will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lightning activity is expected to be rather low but a TSTM area should be warranted, though. A few gusts may reach the 25 m/s criterion but overall coverage and intensity of severe weather is too low for a LVL1 threat.

...W / C Mediterranean...

Warm and moist air with moderate instability will remain in the western / central Mediterranean region during the period. Deep layer shear in order of 10 - 15 m/s may allow multicells with a threat of isolated large hail / severe gusts. Storms may tend to cluster later in the period and large slow-moving systems will pose a threat of flash floods especially over Sicily.