Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 18 Oct 2008 06:00 to Sun 19 Oct 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 17 Oct 2008 21:40
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Broad regime of meandering upper westerlies covers the N Atlantic as well as N and N-central Europe, with regions of low geopotential perisisting over the Iberian peninsula and over the central Mediterranean, respectively. The main baroclinic zone at low levels will curve from S France eastwards across the Black Sea region into Finland by the beginning of the period. Attendant to an upper trough, the N-S oriented segment of this boundary should make fast eastward progress during Saturday.

DISCUSSION

... Mediterranean ...

It does not seem that much severe potential will materialize this period. One focus for convective evolution will exist over the Iberian Peninsula E of a weak quasi-stationary upper low. CAPE and shear should be sufficiently weak so that organized severe weather is unlikely. However, towards the end of the forecast period, a narrow region with 20 m/s DLS will overspread the region immediately east of Spain per model guidance, suggesting that some storm organization may occur. However, forcing appears to be too weak for widespread convective development in this area/at this time, so that the allover severe threat should be rather low. Scattered storms are likely to develop across much of the Mediterranean in weakly capped environment.

... Baltic-Sea region ...

Ahead of a vigorous trough crossing S Scandinavia and the Baltic Sea late Saturday night, weak CAPE is simulated to develop amidst plume of warm/moist air. Model guidance suggests that shear profiles will be rather weak where the convection is to occur, so that not much of a severe threat is anticipated at the moment.