Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 12 Oct 2008 06:00 to Mon 13 Oct 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 12 Oct 2008 08:48
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Weakening upper omega pattern exists over the southern portions of Europe, with the corresponding upper cut-off cyclones being located over western Iberia and the E Mediterranean, respectively. Strong/broad zonal upper frontal zone has established over the northern parts of Europe, extending from the N Atlantic across S Scandinavia into Russia. At low levels, weak WAA persists over W Europe E of the Iberian upper low. Strong/extensive SFC low complexes are present over the N Atiantic and Scandinavia.

DISCUSSION

... E Spain ...

Focus for severe evolution remains eastern Spain, where shear profiles remain quite conducive to well-organized/rotating thunderstorms. Model guidance suggests a weakening especially of the low-level kinematic fields towards the evening, so that the severe threat should gradually weaken during the afternoon hours. However, DLS remains on the order of 20 m/s, so that isolated severe weather may still occur.

Main convective mode should again be linear/bowing segments and supercells, which will initially pose a threat for tornadoes, as well as large hail and damaging wind gusts. Later in the day, the tornado threat may weaken somewhat given declining LLS.

... E Mediterranean ...

Over the E Mediterranean, scattered thunderstorms will likely persist and spread somewhat towards the west in the vicinity of the E Mediterranean upper low. It seems that steep low-level lapse rates and quite low LCL heights are present, suggesting that a few waterspouts may occur once the cells are favorably encountering low-level misovortices. However, at the moment, the threat should be too sporadic for a categorical threat level.