Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 06 Oct 2008 06:00 to Tue 07 Oct 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 05 Oct 2008 23:36
Forecaster: PUCIK

SYNOPSIS

A ridge of high pressure both at midlevels and surface will stretch from the Mediterranean, across Central Europe to the Norwegian Sea. Its axis should divide two troughs, one of them affecting Scandinavia and other one W Atlantic. The latter one will accompanied by a broad zone of strong mid-level flow spreading across much of the region. Under the mid-level trough, widespread and deep low pressure system will move slowly eastwards. A cut off low with its center over the Black sea should traverse NEwards.

DISCUSSION

Most of Europe should be under stable conditions, unfavourable for TSTM development. There will be few areas of interest, where some ltg strikes are anticipated. However, meager instability in all of the sectors should preclude more robust initiation of the deep moist convection. What is more, there is no sufficient instability and deep level shear overlap, so that organised convection would be likely to develop. Therefore, no risk level is issued in this forecast.

...E Atlantic...

Ahead of the trough, very strong low and mid level flow will be available, with LLS values over 10 m/s. Also, strong pressure gradient will likely induce severe wind gusts, which migh reach 25 m/s on the coasts of Normandy. Weak instability is anticipated in the axis of the trough with MLCAPEs around 200 J/kg. With good mid-level forcing, TSTMs might develop even with such small values. As depicted by models, instability belt will be behind the region of the strong flow with almost no overlap. Therefore storms should pose no threat of producing severe weather.