Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 29 Sep 2008 06:00 to Tue 30 Sep 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 28 Sep 2008 13:27
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

The zonal flow in the mid and upper troposphere is concentrated in a band between 50 and 60 north and southof 40 N, i.e. the sourthern Mediterranean and N Africa. Within the norternband of westerlies a vort max over southern Scandinavia is moving eastward.Further upstream, a weak trough is initially located over Great Britain and moves eastward. The left exit region of a NWly jet stream is expected to move across the northern British Isles onto the North Sea during the evening. A weak but large mid/upper-level low over Morocco initially remains more or less stationary. A more intense low pressure area over the southern Balkans moves slowly eastward while preceded by a surface low.

DISCUSSION

... North Sea ...

Some deep convection is likely present initially across northern parts of the indicated thunderstorm area. The rest of the area is forecast to see scattered storms developing on approach of the DCVA related ascent by the jet streak. Deep-layer shear will probably increase to around 20 m/s (0-6 km bulk shear), but weak CAPE will likely mitigate most of the severe weather threat. As a result a level 1 is not warranted.

... Western Mediterranean, Atlas...

Storms are expected to be ongoing in a regime of weak warm air advection across this area. Weak to moderate shear and modest CAPE do not suggest a significant severe weather threat will be present. Local waterspouts, especially in vicinity of the N African coast are possible.

... Aegean Sea, W and NW Turkey ...
;
Near and to the west of the centre of an area of low pressure across the Aegean Sea some storms are ongoing in the morning. As the low pressure moves into Turkey the storm activity will also move eastward and affect Turkey. Low CAPE and weak to moderate wind shear do however suggest that severe weather is unlikely with thsi activity.