Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 01 Sep 2008 06:00 to Tue 02 Sep 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 31 Aug 2008 21:59
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

A mid/upper-level low over the Kola Peninsula moves southeastward across the Barentz Sea into the northern Russian Plain, thereby drawing cold air at low-level southward across Finland and Russian Karelia. A upper-level ridge streching from southern Norway via the German/Polish border to Hungary moves eastward. A vertically-stacked cyclone across the British Isles moves slowly eastward, while a west to southwesterly jet streak enters the southern British Isles ans spreads northeastward across the southern North Sea.

DISCUSSION

Central North European Plain, Alps...

Behind the upper-level ridge, an axis of low-level warm and moist air follows, which will destabilize during the day. About 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to form and locally this might even be a bit more. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to form primarily during the mid- and late afternoon. Weak vertical wind shear suggests that the storms will likely be poorly-organized multicells with a very limited severe weather threat. Apart from local downpours and some, mostly small, hail, severe weather is not anticipated so that a threat level is not issued at the moment.

Ireland, SW Scotland...

Rather widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to intensify across Ireland and later into Scotland. Weak shear and weak instability should preclude any organized severe weather.