Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 12 Aug 2008 14:00 to Wed 13 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Aug 2008 14:53
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

NW and N Germany, E Denmark...

Although a number of strong storms are ongoing, including a number that contain weakly rotating updrafts, a major severe weather day appears not to materialize. Most likely this is due to a combination of weak instability and the fact that vertical wind shear is mostly located within the boundary layer and above 4 km AGL but shear is weak in between. We will retain the level 1 threat area as an isolated tornado appears still possible as well as some localized large hail and strong gusts.

SE Germany...

More instability has developed across SE Bavaria than previously thought. The Munich 12 UTC sounding shows steep low-level lapse rates topping a relatively moist boundary layer as well as strong vertical wind shear. Scattered thunderstorms could bring some localized large hail and gusty winds marginally warranting a level 1.