Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 09 Aug 2008 06:00 to Sun 10 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 08 Aug 2008 21:19
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Broad meandering westerly flow has established over Europe, with one embedded trough approaching the British Isles late in the period, and another one expected to close off over the N Balkans/E Europe during the period. At low levels, the Atlantic trough is accompanied by a rather strong cyclone, while only a weak cyclonic circulation is associated with the E European trough. In between, high SFC pressure is building across central portions of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... Italy ... Adriatic Sea ... W Balkan States ...

Quite unstable air has been present over the central Mediterranean on Friday, and though some of the instability may be depleted by Friday night's convection, ample instability should be in place also on Saturday. However, shear is expected to weaken compared to Friday, though some 15 m/s should be in place again, sufficient for supercellular storms, given the strong thermodynamic support. Main threats should be severe wind gusts along with large hail. Currently it seems that storm coverage in the favorably sheared region will be somewhat limited, and a level one threat seems to be sufficient.

... W Ukraine ... S Belarus ...

Weaker thermodynamic fields will be present further north over the W Ukraine/Belarus region, but moderate DLS should exist ... LLS is simulated to exceed 10 m/s, which should be sufficient for isolated tornadic supercells. Large hail and damaging wind gusts should be the main threats, however.

... S Sweden ...

Strong DLS (20 to 25 m/s) should overspread southern Sweden in the afternoon and evening hours, where weak instability should be present. Expect line segments and isolated mesocyclones, capable of marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts.