Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 03 Aug 2008 19:00 to Mon 04 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Aug 2008 20:12
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the convective forecast.

DISCUSSION

...Northern France, Benelux countries, western-central Germany...

A frontal wave has developed over the British Channel and will move across northern France and Belgium / Netherlands towards northwestern Germany and the Baltic Sea until Monday 06 UTC. Along its cold front, a convective line developed over northwestern France, now moving ENE-ward towards Belgium and western Germany. Ahead of the frontal wave that is currently located over southeastern England, SFC winds have backed to south over northern France with increasing LLS and SRH1 forecast around 400 J/kg. In the last couple of hours, discrete cells with rotating updrafts evolved over Belgium and likely also over the Netherlands and northern France. Current thinking is that some weak and probably a few strong (F2 - F3) tornadoes could occur both with more isolated as well as linearly organized storms. Apart from tornadoes, some severe gusts are expected in the whole LVL1 / LVL2 area as well. As a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE are forecast over central Germany, strong QG forcing should allow tornadic storms and isolated severe gusts over western and central Germany during the night hours.

...Other regions...

Some modifications of the lightning forecast were done with the other regions. Decreasing storm activity over the Ukraine suggests that the LVL1 is not warranted anymore.