Forecast Update
Valid: Wed 30 Jul 2008 15:00 to Thu 31 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 30 Jul 2008 14:56
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the outlook issued at Tue 29 Jul 2008 20:16 UTC.


DISCUSSION

... Extreme E-France and SW -Germany ...

Numerous thunderstorms developed during the past hour in a favorable environment for isolated very large hail. Dewpoints in this area between 15 and 20 °C, coupled with moderate lapse rates, result in widespread 1000 - 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite somewhat weak DLS, wind profilers still show some veering which should be enough for a few organized thunderstorms. In fact, latest radar scans over extreme E-France reveal a well organized and potential very large hail producing thunderstorm. We decided to include those areas in a 2, where LL moisture is the best. The eastern and northern edge of the level - 2 area are somewhat uncertain as debris from ongoing storms ( thick Ci shield ) and lower dewpoints should limit instability release so the risk for significant hail should be too low for expanding the 2 that much tot he north / east but the area has to be monitored, especially north of Saarland / Luxembourg.

Repeating the main risk.....thunderstorms will pose a large hail / strong to severe wind gust risk with isolated significant hail possible in the level - 2 area.


No changes for the rest of the outlook.