Forecast Update
Valid: Mon 28 Jul 2008 15:00 to Tue 29 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 28 Jul 2008 15:00
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

Benelux countries, N France, extreme W Germany

A shallow moist boundary layer has developed under the remnant clouds of last night's convection over the SW half of the Netherlands, NE Belgium and the Eifel. Parcels from this layer in which temperatures and dew points have risen to 28 and 22 degrees respectively should yield an MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg or more, while slightly less CAPE is available further south into northern France. Convective initiation has take place over Westfalen and additional storms will likely develop from tCu fields over the Netherlands and parts of Belgium and N France. Yet storm coverage is a big question, yielding enough uncertainty not to upgrade to level 2 at this time. Still the developments require the level 1 to be extended northward a bit, and the remark that an upgrade to level 2 may be required later tonight should storm coverage become higher than currently expected.

# # #