Forecast Update
Valid: Mon 28 Jul 2008 07:00 to Tue 29 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 28 Jul 2008 07:16
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

W and central France...

Currently, most of France is free of clouds, except for a cluster of elevated storms in the Bordeaux area. Although temperatures and moisture are still rather low across much of the area, this will likely improve during the day so that on the order of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE should have formed at the end of the afternoon. During the day and evening, storm activity is expected to increase and move northeastward as forcing for upward vertical motion increases. With surface-based instability developing this afternoon, the chance for a few organized severe thunderstorms will increase. The main threats will be large hail and severe winds.

# # #