Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 25 Jul 2008 06:00 to Sat 26 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Jul 2008 22:32
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

A strong 1025 hPa high pressure area over N - Europe gets framed by an area of low geopotential heights west of Ireland and a tenacious upper low over SE Europe. Weak pressure / geopotential height gradients in - between result in an extensive area with thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

... Most parts of the Ukraine, E-Slovakia, SE Poland and N - Romania...

MLCAPE values about 500 - 1000 J/kg and weak to moderate DLS are present and scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop in the range of the upper low. As atmosphere is weakly capped and early / widespread initiation is anticipated, main storm mode will be multicells / a few supercells. Low LCLs and a shield of 10 - 15 m/s LL shear are present and also overlap so tornadoes are possible. Otherwise strong wind gusts and isolated large hail will accompany stronger storms.

... The rest of Europe ...

As mentioned above, weak pressure / geopotential height gradients are present over most parts of western and central Europe so there will be a wide area with thunderstorm chances. Shear over central Europe ( e.g. Alpine region or Germany ) is very weak so slow moving storms, dumping torrential amounts of rain in a short period will be the main threat.

Shear gets stronger over SW France and an isolated organized thunderstorm with marginal hail / strong wind gusts and an isolated tornado are possible but neither coverage of storms nor the strength of the shear / instability fields justify a 1.