Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 14 Jul 2008 06:00 to Tue 15 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 13 Jul 2008 21:35
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06:00 UTC, at mid-levels, a trough stretches from Scandinavia towards the western Mediterranean. South of an embedded mid-level over NWrn Italy, a strong jet streak moves eastward across the Mediterranean Sea during the forecast period. In the lower troposphere, a cold front stretches from NE Algeria via central Italy, Bosnia, Hungary and the Polish/Belarussian border to the the eastern Baltic States. Along the front, some waves are traveling to the NE.

Central Dinaric Alps...

Storms are likely ongoing over parts of Slovenia and N Croatia in the early morning, moving onshore off the Adriatic Sea and becoming elevated over land. As diurnal heating sets in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely build over land as well and surface-based storms will occur as well. As deep-layer shear in excess of 30 m/s is expected, intense supercell storms are expected producing large hail, that may locally be very large (> 5 cm). Additionally, damaging winds are expected. During the afternoon and evening the focus of storm activity is expected to move southeastward from northern Croatia and northern Serbia across Bosnia and Herzegovina to southern Croatia/Serbia and Montenegro.

Baltic States, adjacent Russia and Belarus...

Elevated convective activity along the frontal zone is likely ongoing across NE Poland and Lithuania at the beginning of the forecast period. During the day, the activity is expected to reintensify. A strong low-level jet on the warm side of the front produces strong low-level shear and suggests that bowing convective lines will likely form. A few tornadoes are also possible, despite the fact that deep-layer shear is rather limited.

Baltic States, adjacent Russia and Belarus...

Elevated convective activity along the frontal zone is likely ongoing across NE Poland and Lithuania at the beginning of the forecast period. During the day, the activity is expected to reintensify. A strong low-level jet on the warm side of the front produces strong low-level shear and suggests that bowing convective lines will likely form. A few tornadoes are also possible, despite the fact that deep-layer shear is rather limited.

Hungary, Romania, W Ukraine, E Poland...

Scattered storms will probably develop in an environment of moderate shear and moderate CAPE. Multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Large hail and very localized severe winds are the main threats.

Northern Italy...

Weak to moderate shear is expected over north Italy in vicinity of the aformentioned mid-level low. Still, steep mid-level lapse rates and low freezing levels will allow for some moderately intense storms, that could produce some large hail in places.

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