Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 10 Jul 2008 17:00 to Fri 11 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 10 Jul 2008 17:30
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast

DISCUSSION

Northern and central France, Benelux and parts of West, Central and East Germany...

A surface front is situated approximately along a line from Paris to Cologne to Berlin. Near the front, a few rotating storms (small supercells) have developed during the past two hours. Given that low-level shear is strong -in excess of 10 m/s in the lowest kilometre-and LFC heights are low in this zone, a few tornadoes are not ruled out with these storms, especially where the temperature/dew-point spread is small.The storms can also produce some severe winds and large hail. Isolated strong, perhaps rotating storms are not ruled out either up to 200 km north of the front.The storms will probably continue throughout the evening, before becoming elevated overnight. Then, the chance that they produce severe weather will gradually diminish.


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