Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 06 Jul 2008 09:00 to Mon 07 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 06 Jul 2008 09:59
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the convective forecast.

DISCUSSION

...Northern Italy, SW Austria...

Convective initiation started over northwestern Italy and some intense storms, probably supercells, developed. MUCAPE around 2 kJ/kg and 20 m/s DLS with strong directional shear will sustain those storms and allow some more organized multicells / supercells to form during the afternoon. Any convective cell that develops in such an environment should be capable of producing widespread large / isolated very large hail and damaging gusts. LLS is only around 10 m/s but about 150 J/kg SRH1 may allow an isolated tornado to develop.

...Other areas...

The level-one area was extended to the north as about 1 kJ/kg CAPE and 20 m/s deep layer shear should be sufficient for some isolated large hail reports in southern Germany. Other areas were only slightly modified except for southern Scandinavia / northern Germany as uncapped parcel layer depth should be greater than anticipated.


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