Forecast Update
Valid: Thu 03 Jul 2008 09:00 to Fri 04 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 03 Jul 2008 09:12
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

See previous outlook.

DISCUSSION

Southern Germany

Latest GFS and BLAM model indicate that strong convergence east of the cold front will not evolve during the day as low pressure system over Germany is predicted further north. As a consequence, westerly winds will rapidly extend eastward leading to cold air advection and forcing will likely we low. Expect a few thunderstorms to develop, but threat of severe wind gusts is not expected to be high enough for a level two.

North-western Italy region

Unstable air mass is present over northern Italy east of the cold front, and sunshine is likely during the next hours. Given rich low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates, high CAPE values are forecast. During the day, a strong jet streak indicated by latest WV images will move into west Mediterranean, providing QG forcing over north-western Italy as well as DLS. Along the frontal boundary, latest GFS model indicate the development of a 15 m/s 700 hPa SWerly jet that will also be a focus of increasing low-level vertical wind shear and helicity.

Thunderstorms will likely spread into north-western Italy during the day. Moderate vertical wind shear will support rotating updrafts, and supercells are likely to form. Large or very large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are forecast. Even strong tornadoes are not ruled out. Convective activity may spread eastward during the day, although models do indicate that forcing will be low.
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