Forecast Update
Valid: Tue 01 Jul 2008 15:00 to Wed 02 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 01 Jul 2008 14:55
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

DISCUSSION

The level 2 area over southwest France has been downgraded with respect to today's Forecast.

12Z soundings of Bordeaux and Santander show significant limitations to convective initiation (capping, dry air layers at low altitude) and a major forcing factor is absent. Vertical shear was forecast by GFS to be moderate over 0-3 km, but this is not visible in the real time data.

00Z Santander did show deep steep lapse rates and potential for significant CAPE. This airmass should have been advected into SW France by now. Current dewpoints reach 21-22°C in a small area of SW-most France, as well as converging winds more inland, where initiation could take place, however, much of the former level 2 area is under 2m temperature/dewpoints of 30/18°C, keeping CIN unless deep lift would be present.

Isolated storms may occur initially, with a chance of marginally large hail and strong/severe gusts. Potential exists for longer lived storms tonight (if GFS precip correct) , but severe gust chances should remain limited to isolated occurrence.

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