Forecast Update
Valid: Mon 23 Jun 2008 14:00 to Tue 24 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 23 Jun 2008 14:48
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

Area north of the Alps, SE Poland...

In two areas with very moist air south of the frontal zone, scattered convective storms including supercells have developed in an environment of moderate CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 20 m/s of deep-layer shear. They will likely persist well into the evening while producing large hail and damaging winds.

W Ukraine...

Widespread convective storms have formed over the western Ukraine, where 20 m/s of deep-layer shear and 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE should be available. Large hail and damaging winds are expected with these storms. Low-level shear in the range of backed low-level flow in the areas around Berdychiv and Kiev stretching to Pervomais'k could support a few tornadoes as well.

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