Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 19 Jun 2008 06:00 to Fri 20 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 18 Jun 2008 21:48
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Long-wave trough is present west of Europe, while an African high ridges into Mediterranean. In between, a strong westerly flow is present from Bay of Biscay region to central Europe, where the delta of this jet is situated just upstream of weakening low over western Black Sea region. A rather weak temperature gradient is present along the main frontal boundary from France to Alpine region and Ukraine, where weak high pressure has developed. As a consequence, mid-troposphere winds are relatively weak. Thunderstorms that form in this region are forecast to be unorganized and weak. Severe convection seems to be not likely. Best chances for isolated severe storms are expected over western Black Sea region, where moderate vertical wind shear may favour organized convection sufficient for isolated severe reports. To the north, a strong jet streak is present over Scandinavia at the southern flank of a negatively tilted upper trough. In the range of this trough, polar air mass will likely become unstable due to diurnal heating and thunderstorms are forecast to develop again.
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