Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 15 Jun 2008 06:00 to Mon 16 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 14 Jun 2008 19:01
Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

An extensive upper - level trough is anchored over NW and N - Europe. Numerous more or less pronounced disturbances rotate around this trough, resulting in a broad area with enhanced convective activity. For most of the areas it will be another day with mainly diurnal driven thunderstorm activity. A strong baroclinic zone ranges from Albania / Greece to extreme western Russia and will be the focus for the strongest thunderstorm activity for the area of responsibility during the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of SE and E - Europe ...

Aforementioned baroclinic zone separates a warm and humid airmass to its east from a cooler and drier airmass to its west. Like yesterday not many stations had ample instability signals but there are a few isolated spots with CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg. DLS will be very weak so storm mode will be mainly pulsating thunderstorms with a marginal hail / strong wind gust and heavy rainfall risk. There will be two areas where thunderstorms could be better organized. One of them will be W - Turkey where stronger DLS will be available and a few large hail reports can't be excluded. The level area was drawn over Bulgaria, too where weaker shear but more robust instability release could result in an isolated large hail report. The other area will be over far western Russia, where better LL helicity and shear overlap with modest instability release and an isolated tornado will be possible.

... Norway, Sweden and parts of Germany / Poland...

Mid - / and low - level lapse rates stay steep so scattered thunderstorms will evolve in a weakly sheared environment. However, 15 m/s DLS and locally up to 500 J/kg SBCAPE could result in stronger pulsating storms with an isolated large hail risk. Airmass will be well mixed and despite 1km ( ) LCLs, an isolated funnel / tornado report can't be excluded. The coverage of reports and the overall environment prevents any level areas.

... NE Spain and eastwards ...

A short - wave will cross the area from the west during the afternoon hours onwards. Shear is strong with 25 m/s DLS but instability release will be on the lower end side. Thunderstorms will pose a strong to locally severe wind gust risk, but confidence is too low for now to go with a level - 1 area. An upgrade may be issued when more instability will be released than currently anticipated.



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