Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 14 Jun 2008 06:00 to Sun 15 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 13 Jun 2008 21:16
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Deep and broad quasi-stationary upper trough remains centered over N Europe, with several vort maxima being present at its periphery. Ahead of this trough, over E Europe, moist and moderately unstable air is present which will be the focus for deep convective development on Saturday. Vertically-stacked, rather weak SFC pressure system is present over S Scandinavia, while essentially quiescent conditions prevail over the rest of Europe.

DISCUSSION

... E Europe ...

Though the majority of the thermodynamic profiles feature weak CAPE/CINH and rather deep CBLs leading to rather high-based storms, at least locally ample CAPE is present (ref. 33791 12Z ascent from Friday). However, shear profiles are expected to remain quite weak, so that well-organized storms are not expected. Still, storms may merge into larger clusters with a threat for marginally severe hail and severe wind gusts if strong cold pools form. Minimal capping and 7 m/s LLS over the N-central Ukraine/southern Russia towards the evening hint at a threat for isolated tornadoes as well. A small level-one risk will be issued where strongest LLS is simulated.

... Germany ... Denmark ... Scandinavia ...

Low-level diabatic heating will likely result in numerous showers and thunderstorms across N Germany, Denmark and Scandinavia. Little capping and low LCLs may be supportive of an isolated funnel/non-supercell tornado, but weak shear precludes significant severe weather probabilities at the moment.

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