Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 07 Jun 2008 06:00 to Sun 08 Jun 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 06 Jun 2008 21:20
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Upper split flow pattern is present over Europe, with the southern branch of the upper frontal zone stretching across the Mediterranean and the northern one from N Scandinavia into NW Russia. At low levels, a weak cyclonic circulation is accompanying a southern-stream vort max that affects the N Mediterranem and the Balkans on Saturday. Thermal gradiants are generally weak, across Europe, with the only appreciable, quasi-stationary baroclinic zones extending from the N Maghreb States eastwards towards the Aegean region/Turkey ... and across NE Europe, at the SW flank of a fairly intense upper low centered over N Russia.

DISCUSSION

... central parts of Europe ...

Thermodynamic fields are generally expected to undergo little change compared to Friday given minimal differential moisture/lapse-rate advection, and limited large-scale ascent. Expect nearly uncapped profiles with a few 100 J/kg of CAPE towards the afternoon. Scattered, mostly disorganized thunderstorms should result, though interaction between cells/outflow boundaries may result in an isolated marginally severe hail event or two.

... Ionian/Aegean region ...

Some better severe threat may exist over the Ionian/Aegean regions where about 20 m/s DLS will be present in association with a mid-level jet streak imbedded in the southern frontal zone. This may support well-organized multicells and a few mesocyclones, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
# # #