Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 06 May 2008 06:00 to Wed 07 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 05 May 2008 23:00
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A large blocking omega high pressure pattern is centered over the North Sea and dominates most of Europe. In a zone over the Iberian Peninsula, France, alpine area (very marginal), and western/northern parts of the Balkan, instability is present that may locally lead to thunderstorms, especially over convergence areas and higher terrain.

DISCUSSION

Over Spain the deep layer shear and 0-3 km SREH are slightly enhanced. Storms may organize better in this area into multicells. The forcing is limited to higher terrain, and cloud bases can reach over 2000m above ground. Under these conditions marginally large hail is possible, as well as strong gusts (likely sub-severe given the lack of wind in the environment). Note: the latest 18Z GFS lays the zone of instability actually somewhat more to the west into Galicia.

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