Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 05 May 2008 06:00 to Tue 06 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 04 May 2008 21:29
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

Monday at 06:00 UTC... an amplifying ridge over western continental Europe is transforming into a omega blocking pattern. Height rises over southern Scandinavia ensure that stable conditions persist in these areas, whereas more unstable conditions are found on its periphery.

Western and southern France, north Spain...

A weak vorticity maximum over southwestern France is forecast to induce new thunderstorm development over much of SW France and northern Spain. Low CAPE and weak shear suggest that severe weather will be relatively unlikely. Some hail, mostly small, is however possible given relatively steep mid-level lapse rates.

Great Britain...

Warm air advection in a southerly flow over the British Isles could again cause sufficient destabilization to cause thunderstorm development over western parts of England and Wales. Some small hail will be possible here as well as localized flooding.

Other thunderstorm areas...

The thunderstorms expected in these areas should be mostly non-severe because of weak instability and shear.

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