Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 03 May 2008 06:00 to Sun 04 May 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 02 May 2008 20:57
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Saturday, a ridge over western continental Europe is expected to amplify. Downstream, several weak vorticity maxima travel southeastward along a jet thta stretches from northern Germany into the central and southeastern Balkans.
On the cold side of the jet a trough over the Ukraine and Belarus gradually moves westward.

DISCUSSION

...Czech Republic, western Pannonian Plain, Bulgaria...

On the cold side of the jet, some weak latent instability is expected, especially ahead of the the vorticity maxima. There, storms are expected to develop that may produce some, mostly small, hail as mid-level lapse rates should be relatively steep.

... northern Sweden...

Weak warm air advection from the east, and an approaching trough from the west towards the evening, are expected to yield some CAPE as the boundary layer warms and moistens a bit during the day. A few thunderstorms are expected. Weak shear and CAPE indicate that the storms will likely not produce anything more severe than some small hail.

...Tell Atlas, Aures Mountains...

In reponse to diurnal heating upslope flow of moist Mediterranean air should again take place, resulting in scattered storms over the mountain ranges. Given that moderate shear and CAPE are forecast, a few strong downdrafts and some hail will be possible at higher elevations. The overall threat appears a bit too low to issue a threat level though.
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