Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 05 Apr 2008 06:00 to Sun 06 Apr 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 04 Apr 2008 18:06
Forecaster: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Deep large scale upper trough will be regenerated by an upper trough digging from the North Sea into central portions of Europe during the period. Associated surge of polar air will affect the northwestern parts of Europe. Vort max belonging to the residual large-scale upper trough (which is being replaced by the NE European trough) will persist over the Ionian/Aegean regions.

DISCUSSION

... S Italy ... Ionian Sea ... S Balkan ... Aegean Sea ... W Turkey ...

It seems that some severe potential will exist ahead of the Mediterranean vort max/cold front in weakly unstable air mass. Soundings from Friday partly featured quite impressive low-level buoyancy, which may - at least locally - be present on Saturday as well. Deep shear is simulated to be on the order of 20 m/s in the pre-frontal region ... implying some threat for mesocyclones as well as moderately well organized multicell storms, posing a threat for severe outflow winds as well as large hail. If/where strong low-level buoyancy is realized again, tornadoes are possible despite the weak low-level shear. However, allover instability should be rather weak, and thunderstorms may be imbedded in largely stratiform precip, which may reduce the severe potential somewhat. Severe threat may extend towards the cool side of the front where quite strong shear profiles (DLS of about 30 m/s) should be available ... limiting factor should be the expected shallow nature of the storms. Still a level-one threat appears to be warranted.

Otherwise it seems that severe potential will be quite low.