Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 27 Mar 2008 06:00 to Fri 28 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 26 Mar 2008 22:12
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Well-developed long-wave trough over Europe slowly moves eastward. A strong upper jet is present along its periphery. Embedded short-wave/jet streak will propagate eastward during the period. At low levels, a low moves eastward western Greece late in the period. In the wake of this low, cold air spreads into west Mediterranean, while warm air mass is advected into Aegean and Adriatic.

DISCUSSION

Central Mediterranean, Aegean, Adriatic

Quite intense surface low moves eastward over Mediterranean in the range of QG forcing associated with the upper jet streak. Ahead of this low, south-easterly winds are forecast. Warm air mass is characterized by steep low-level lapse rates and relatively rich boundary-layer moisture as indicated by latest Trapani sounding. Expect that instability will be present during the period ahead of the propagating cold front of the low, showers and thunderstorms seem to be likely given strong forcing and rather weak CIN. With south-easterly low-level winds and increasingly strong southerly winds in mid-levels, vertical wind shear will be rather high and is forecast to be sufficient for organized convection. Bowing lines and mesocyclones are forecast, capable of producing severe wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and isolated large hail. Chance for tornadoes may increase in the evening hours as strong southerly low-level jet will develop in the range of the cold front, enhancing LLS. Limiting factor will be rather weak instability and locally strong capping inversion above the rather cool water.