Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 18 Mar 2008 06:00 to Wed 19 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 17 Mar 2008 21:54
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

An upper high is stretching from southern UK to Iceland while a low pressure complex is present over the Baltic States. These features will lead to strong cold air advection towards central / northeastern Europe.

The weather in southern Europe is dominated by three low pressure systems: the first one over the Bay of Biscay, the second one over northern Italy and a third one over the Bosporus region. A frontal zone stretches from northwestern Iberia via northern Italy and Romania towards western Russia, separating rather warm and moist air to the south from a maritime arctic airmass to the north. Upper level cooling and diabatic surface heating will likely result in a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Some non-severe thunderstorms are expected over northwestern Iberia and the Bosporus region.

Upper level cold air will overspread eastern Germany, the Baltic sea and Poland where some low-end instability should be created. These regions may see isolated thunder and showers with graupel or small hail. Best chances for lightning are expected over eastern Germany where most CAPE and greatest parcel layer depths are predicted.

DISCUSSION

Albania / Montenegro

Ahead of an upper trough over southeastern Europe, moist and warm airmass with mixing ratios up to 10 g/kg is advected towards the Balkans. Some hundred J/kg of CAPE should be created as mid level lapse rates increase to about 7 K/km. QG forcing ahead of the trough, deep layer shear around 30 m/s and strong SRH with about 300 J/kg are favourable for strong multicells and a few supercells, capable of producing isolated large hail. Tornadoes are not ruled out as up to 15 m/s low level shear are present near the Albanian coast. Convection will likely start to develop in the late evening / night hours.