Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 06 Mar 2008 06:00 to Fri 07 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 06 Mar 2008 15:20
Forecaster: GATZEN / SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

Cut-off will affect the central Mediterranean. A well-developed frontal boundary present at the eastern flank of this cut-off will be the focus of expected severe convection.

DISCUSSION

Steep lapse rates have formed over central Mediterranean in the range of a frontal boundary. Low-level moisture is not that rich as indicate by latest soundings, but it seems that latent instability will be in place during the period. Along the frontal boundary, waves are expected to develop as strong QG forcing is forecast in the range of propagating jet streak curving around the upper trough. This will likely lead to initiation of thunderstorms. Given strong upper level southerly winds, and moderate low-level south-easterly winds, strong vertical wind shear is expected, allowing for organized convection. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts as well as isolated tornadoes are not ruled out.

Central Mediterranean

Weak vertical wind shear and rather good low-level buoyancy may be favorable for a few waterspouts in the range of convetive cells during the period.