Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 03 Mar 2008 06:00 to Tue 04 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Mar 2008 19:19
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Monday at 06:00... a weakly meandering jet dominates the mid- and upper-level flow over Europe. Upstream of a broad ridge over the European continent, a shortwave trough is located west of Ireland. During the forecast period, this trough is expected to dig southward over France, and may form a closed low later this week. In the lower troposphere, relatively warm air over Spain, France and the Alpine region is retreating southward ahead of an advancing polar air-mass from the British Isles, and northern Atlantic Ocean.

Ireland, southern U.K., W France...

Within a cold air-mass is located over the British Isles, numerous graupel, snow and rain showers are expected especially over Ireland and southern Britain. There, some lightning is possible. During the passage of the aformentioned shortwave trough, the lower tropospheric wind field should become strong so that wind gusts may exceed 25 m/s over Ireland and SW England. However, as these will not be exclusively related to deep convection, we refrain from issuing a convective threat level. From the end of the afternoon, showers will spread to western France and may produce strong gusts there also.

Benelux, NW Germany, Denmark...

As increasingly cold air flows over the North Sea during Monday morning, convective activity will be on the increase here as well. 850 hPa winds should remain rather weak, so that gusts shouldn't reach severe levels. A low pressure system moving southward over the North Sea is expected to reach northern Netherlands Tuesday morning and might locally cause more wind.