Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 02 Mar 2008 06:00 to Mon 03 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 01 Mar 2008 20:08
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK

SYNOPSIS

A large low pressure complex over Scandinavia advects a maritime polar airmass southeastward that will lead to rather cool and unsettled conditions over major parts of central and western Europe. Southwest of Iceland, another strong surface low will slowly move southeastward, affecting western UK in the latter part of the forecast period.

Ahead of the upper trough over western UK, a cold front is stretching from extreme northwestern Portugal via the Gulf of Biacay to central Germany on Monday morning, separating maritime cold air to its northwest from warm and moist air over the western Mediterranean. Recently, there are no signals for sufficient instability but model runs may change in the next 24 hours.

A strong upper trough over eastern Europe will shift eastward, affecting parts of Greece, Turkey and the Black Sea region. Associated 80 m/s upper jet streak is forecast to move from eastern Germany / western Poland towards Romania with its exit region located over the Aegean Sea.

DISCUSSION

Aegean Sea and western Turkey

The approaching upper level trough will provide enough forcing for some multicells or multicell lines in an environment with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Low level winds in order of 20 m/s at 700hPa should allow some marginally severe gusts. About 20 m/s 0-6 km deep layer shear is forecast and some short-lived mesocyclones could evolve. LCL heights will stay quite low and frictionally enhanced low level shear in order of 10 m/s may allow a few funnels / tornadoes over western Turkey during the afternoon.

Northwestern UK

As the upper trough moves towards the region of interest, lapse rates will steepen and a few hundred J/kg should allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Low level shear may be somewhat enhanced over northwestern UK but low level moisture should decrease while convection is ongoing. Wind speeds around 25 m/s at lower levels may allow gusty winds but a threat level seems not warranted. Lightning will likely occur too sporadic to issue a thunderstorm area.