Forecast Update
Valid: Sat 01 Mar 2008 11:00 to Sun 02 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 01 Mar 2008 11:28
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Refer to convective forecast...

DISCUSSION

S and E Austria, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, Western and central Balkans...

A strong convective line associated with a surface cold front is working its way SEward across Austria, the Czech Repubilc. With this strongly-forced convective event widespread severe wind gusts are being reported. The thermodynamic environment appears ahead of the line does not deteriorate in the coming hours, as dew points of 7-9 degrees have advected into Hungary, Slovenia and even SE Poland.
Across Hungary and the NW Balkans models also continue to advertise that 200-400 J/kg of CAPE will be available ahead of the line. However, the low-level wind field should weaken somewhat, so that a gradual reduction of the severe wind gust threat is expected in the late afternoon. The low level wind field should initially be strong enough to support the occurrence of a few tornadoes.