Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 01 Mar 2008 06:00 to Sun 02 Mar 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 29 Feb 2008 18:58
Forecaster: DAHL
SYNOPSIS
Vigorous upper westerly flow has established over the Atlantic and Europe ... with an imbedded wave rapidly digging from central Germany towards Turkey/the Black Sea region by Sunday 06Z. Extensive and quite intense SFC cyclone centered over SW Norway is simulated to develop a new centroid over the Baltic Sea region during the day. Associetd cold front, which will be attached to the digging upper trough will quickly surge from central Germany across the Balkans into the central Black Sea.
DISCUSSION
... S Germany ... Austria ... Balkan States ...
Convective scenario remains somewhat challenging ... with the potential severe wind/tornado threat depending on whether or not convection develops along the cold front. As global model, GFS naturally has difficulties in capturing the detailed structure of the cold front and the evolution of instability/convection along it. Based on the magnitude of upward forcing and the strong front-normal flow component, development of a split-frontal structure exists, and the development of a strongly forced slab-type convective line, several lines, or line segments, is anticipated. The main threat associated with these lines will be severe straight-line wind gusts, though large low-level hodographs suggest that any isolated updraft may attain appreciable rotation with an attendant tornado threat. Threat for convection appears to persist through the day as the cold front surges southeastwards, though wind fields seem to weaken over the Balkans and vigor of upward forcing and convection may thus also undergo some weakening.
... N Germany ... W Poland ...
Comparatively shallow moist convection, possibly organizing into small line segments, is anticipated in the wake of the cold front. This convection will develop amidst the strongest wind field this ETC has to offer, and thus augment the severe gradient background flow, and may in addition produce a short-lived tornado or two.
