Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 26 Feb 2008 06:00 to Wed 27 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 25 Feb 2008 23:30
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure area north of Scotland moves to southern Scandinavia during the period. Maritime cellular convection near the core may produce isolated lightning.
The cold front associated with the low is rather weak in the theta-e and PV fields. It moves from the UK into mid Poland during the period.
Instability in the Iberian/Moroccan region retreats back southward.

DISCUSSION

Over Benelux and Germany, low level instability is indicated in GFS (0-3 km CAPE) but mostly under poor 2-4 km lapse rates, which suggests together with insufficient lifted indices that convection would not reach deep. The predicted low level shear and moderate deep layer shear would in principle be sufficient for tornadoes, but lack of convective strength/depth and forcing seem not cooperative and hence no level 1.