Extended Forecast
Valid: Mon 25 Feb 2008 06:00 to Tue 26 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 23 Feb 2008 20:25
Forecaster: TUSCHY

Belt of strong westerlies continues to influence northern Europe. A strong depression is forecast to approach United Kingdom, Scotland and Ireland from the west during the late evening and night hours. Upper-streamline pattern becomes diffluent and an embedded upper-level trough and a surface cold front will cross those areas from the west all supportive for some forcing but at the moment environment looks not promising for a robust thunderstorm risk. A strong theta-e ridge can establish ahead of the front but thermodynamics should keep instability release very limited. Thus we won't issue a thunderstorm area .

In the range of a decaying upper-level trough over SW Europe scattered thunderstorms are forecast , mainly over S-Portugal and Spain, the Strait of Gibraltar and N/NE Morocco. LL lapse rates are somewhat enhanced and SBCAPE of up to 800J/kg could sustain strong updrafts. Shear is weak but there is still some veering present at lowest 3km over southern Spain. Low LCLs and strong LL instability release could result in an isolated funnel / short lived tornado report but risk will be too low for a level-1. Thunderstorm activity will be diurnal driven with a peak during the afternoon hours.

Otherwise no thunderstorms are forecast for the rest of Europe.