Extended Forecast
Valid: Fri 22 Feb 2008 06:00 to Sat 23 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 20 Feb 2008 20:46
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A strong zonal flow establishes south of a broad cyclonic vortex, centered over northern Norway. Despite a broad area of strongly enhanced LL shear over central Norway and Sweden, instability and expected moisture in the BL will be too meager for thunderstorm initiation. This area and especially the dewpoints have to be monitored closely in future model runs as kinematics would be favorable for organized thunderstorms. Best chance for an isolated thunderstorm exists along the coastal areas of western Norway with gusty winds and marginal hail. A general thunderstorm area may become necessary later on.

A few more storms just west / southwest of Portugal and south of Italy could develop during the forecast period, but shear and thermodynamics stay too weak for long-lived thunderstorms. Environment south of Italy even looks that hostile for thunderstorm development that no highlighted area was drawn.