Extended Forecast
Valid: Thu 14 Feb 2008 06:00 to Fri 15 Feb 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 12 Feb 2008 22:10
Forecaster: TUSCHY

Downstream of the persistent high pressure area, centered over the North Sea an outbreak of very cold and dry air is forecast to overspread most parts of eastern Europe. The main negative fact for a more robust thunderstorm risk right now will be a pretty dry boundary layer with increasing T-Td spreads further towards the south. However very cold profilers will be present over Belarus,Poland, Lithuania,Latvia and Estonia, which is enough for a broad area of low-end instability release.Cold EL temperatures and very steep lapse rates could support deeper updrafts, but marginal instability release should limit the thunderstorm coverage.Main risk will be a small hail risk. A thunderstorm area could become necessary later on.

A moderate instability but low shear environment SW of Portugal is supportive for scattered thunderstorms, but no organized activity expected.